FSU Football: Ranking & Examining The Nole's & Opponent's 2023 ACC Schedules | New Tie Break Rules
Mike Norvell's Seminoles fresh of a 10-3 (5-3) Season in 2022 face a brand new conference schedule with the ACC finally dropping divisions. Who will challenge the Noles and how about their schedules?
Clemson Tigers - Away
Pittsburgh Panthers - Away
Duke Blue Devils - Home
Syracuse Orange - Home
Wake Forest Demon Deacons - Away
Miami Hurricanes - Home
Boston College Eagles - Away
Virginia Tech Hokies - Home
Vegas Odds To Win The ACC
(Fanduel, Cesarβs, Draft Kings, MGM, avg.)
π’ - Scheduled To Play π - scheduled Miami
π΄ - Louisville
1.) FSU | +166.2 π
2.) Clemson | +186.25 π’ +π
3.) UNC | +675 π
4.) Louisville | +937.5 π
5.) NC State | +1775 π + π΄
6.) Miami | +1,975 π’ + π΄
7.) Pittsburgh | +2650 π’ + π΄
8.) Duke | +3300 π’ + π΄
9.) Wake Forest | +5250 π’
10.) Syracuse | +5950 π’
11.) VT | +9,500 π’ + π΄
12.) BC | +11,250 π’ + π΄ + π
13.) GT | +11,875 π+ π΄
14.) UVA | +13,750 π + π΄
No More Divisions!
This development is gigantic for the Noles and if Iβm being honest I donβt believe people grasp just how much of a difference it makes. When you look at the Vegas odds four of the top five would have been Atlantic Teams while three out of bottom four are Coastal. This disparity isnβt something that happened over night but in 2022 it reached a critical point that had to be adressed as the six best teams in the league ripped each other apart in consecutive weeks round robin style.
On top of the cannibalization inside the Atlantic division you also ended up with conference title games where it would appear the two teams are from whole different leagues. With the twelve team playoff enroute teams in the ACC need that marquee matchup for that final data point. In 2023 it will only help ensure the champion makes the top four, but in 2024 and beyond it will give the ACC an oppurtunity for the loser to still make it into the field following a close game. (Assuming it still exists in this from)
Louisville Misses Everyone
Louisville was the biggest winner in the new schedule sweepstakes missing several top ACC teams as we head into 2023. Jeff Brohm couldnβt ask for a better schedule for his inaugural season as the Cardinals head man. Their schedule has no UNC, Clemson, FSU, or even Wake Forest. This makes them a legitimate dark horse to make the ACC Champioship.
This is the best interview we have ever done via ALL-FSU If you havenβt listen yet watch It Out On Youtube! Also available for audio download here on the site!
Youtube | @TheRenegadeReport
Miamiβs Second Half Is Brutal
Our nemesis down in Coral Gables will finally feel what it was like to be a part of the Atlantic side of the conference in 2023. Also, as the ACC seemed to love to do Florida State each year, their toughest five ACC opponents come in a six week span with no byes.
1st Half: Miami(OH), Texas A&M, Bethune-Cookman, Temple, Bye, GT.
2nd Half: North Carolina #3, Clemson #2, Virginia #14, NC State #5, FSU #1, Lousiville #4, BC.
*Rankings By Vegas Odds
All Eyes on Clemson
Clemson has dominated the ACC since finally beating FSU back in 2015. Not only that but they have brought home National Titles in 2016 & 2018. Their dominance has certainly been impressive but their dynasty has finally begun to show some cracks. Coach by coach their staff was plundered until by 2022 Dabo Swinney was the only real name of note left from those two CFP Titles.
With Brent Venables accepting the Oklahoma Job and Tony Elliot doing the same for the Virginia Cavaliers Dabo made a pretty interesting decision ( one that I believe was certainly a mistake) by filling both open spots with employees within the coaching staff. At keast ine if which has bever coached anywhere bit Clemson since being a GA. Clemson was still the class of the ACC going 8-0 in β22 but they were not the true playoff contender they had been as for over five years.
To Daboβs credit he realized he needed to act if the Tigers were to return to playoff contention. Enter TCU offensive coordinator and offensive guru Garrett Riley. (Yes that Riley, Lincolnβs little brother) This X-factor changes things and I expect their offense to make major strides under the direction of Cade Klubnik. Clemsonβs defense was much better by comparison in β22 ranking in the top 25 of most defensive categories and Wes Goodwin (defensive coordinator) returns for his second year.
While you must take it one game at a time and no win is ever guarenteed the Noles will likely be favored in every conference game outside of the Tigers in Death Valley. This one will likely float around a pick-em matchup and end up being a preview for the coference title game.
New Tie Break Rules
If there is something to complain about heading into this season it would absolutely be the new convaluted tie-break rules. In the case that there are two or more teams tied for the second spot in the ACC Title game we will see them put to use. I will try to explain them to you all the best I can without getting too deep into the woods. If I could choose after conference record and head to heads Iβd go straight to the CFP Ranking. In 2023 and going forward the goal of every P5 conference should be filling as many playoff slots as possible, but I digess.
In your normal situation the teams with the two best winning percentages in conference play will play for the title.
1.) Two way tie for second: Head to Head results. ( same for multiple teams tied.)
2b.) In the case of more than two teams being tied the process is very similar except in the case that the teams are not common opponents if one team HAS beaten the others they shall advance.
2.) Winning Percentage Vs. Common Oppenents
3.) Winning % vs. Common Oppenents weighted by opponents order of finish in conference.
4.) Adds winning percentage to numbers 2 & 3 with the team having better opponents winning percentage advancing.
5.) Next they look at a metric called βTeam Rating Scoreβ from Sports source Anylytics.
6.) If #5 doesnβt work they will have an official lot pull. ( basically a coin flip